沃特福德对阿森纳比分预测: 沃特福德vs南安普顿

2013年經濟學人 反攻 The fightback

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Finance and Economics;India's economy;The fightback;

財經;印度經濟;反攻;

Undercurrents of optimism about reform, and some fighting talk, in India;

在印度經濟改革勢頭良好、但仍存靡靡質疑之聲的背后;

After a storm-tossed six months for the economy, India's authorities are trying to get things back on an even keel. On June 25th the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced measures to try to stabilise the rupee. It has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar in the past year (see chart), reflecting global woes1 but also a slowdown in India and a drying up of capital inflows. Its decline is widely seen in India as a bad thing, stoking inflation and hurting firms with foreign-currency debt.

在國內經濟度過了近六個月的風雨飄搖之后,印度政府開始著力如何將經濟局勢趨于穩定。6月25日,印度儲備銀行宣布了一系列措施,意圖穩定盧比匯率。在過去的一年中,盧比對美元的匯率下挫近百分之二十(見下圖),不僅反映出了全球經濟之殤,還體現了印度本國經濟增速放緩,進口資金枯竭的問題。這種下滑對印度來說普遍被視為不利因素,不僅通脹率隨之節節攀升,對于舉有外債的公司來說負擔也更為沉重。

India has long shied away from letting fickle2 foreigners buy government bonds, but the RBI this week loosened the rules to tempt3 in sovereign-wealth funds and other long-term investors4. It also slightly eased restrictions5 on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure6 firms seeking funds abroad.

印度向來都對一些不靠譜的外資對國債的收購請求采取規避的態度,但印度央行此次則對政策實施寬松,希望能夠吸引到更多大筆的資金和長期投資意向人。一些從事制造業和基建工程的印度公司也在尋求外資助力的限制上得到了適度的放寬。

IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale7 by saying it would invest up to 1.5 billion EURO(1.9 billion Dollar) in India—although on closer inspection8 that sum was spread over many years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional 3 billion Dollar in investment, taking the total earmarked for India by 2020 to 5 billion Dollar. A ratings agency proved oddly helpful, too: on June 25th Moody's signalled it would not follow Standard and Poor's and Fitch, which have both warned of a possible downgrade of India to junk status. Its rating, which hovers9 just within investment grade, remains10 stable, the agency said.

瑞典家居連鎖巨頭宜家公司宣布決定在印度投入15億歐元(約19億美元)資金——盡管這筆巨額投資被安排在數年時間里逐批投放,但也為當地經濟的提振帶來了利好消息??煽誑衫止疽步羲嫫浜?,宣布將會追加30億美元撥入印度市場,到2020年時印度將接受總額達50億美元的投資。一家評級機構也出乎意料地幫了個忙:本月25日,穆迪宣布其不會跟隨標普和惠譽之后,警告會將印度的信用評級降至垃圾級。穆迪確認,印度目前所擁有的投資級依然穩定。

The impact of all this? Not much. The rupee is still near record lows. Yet there is a feeling that a bleak11 picture may be improving slightly, mainly thanks to a government reshuffle. Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, left his position on June 26th to contest the largely ceremonial post of the presidency12. Mr Mukherjee, who presented his first budget in 1982, has had a disastrous13 stint14 as finance minister this time round, pursuing controversial tax claims against foreigners, including Vodafone; failing to tame the budget deficit15; and chairing troubleshooting committees that often fired ordnance16 at India's own feet.

上述的這些到底能派上多大的用場呢?只能說收效甚微。盧比匯率目前仍在其歷史最低點附近徘徊,但隨著政府部門及領導人的重新洗牌,也有預感認為慘淡的國內經濟形式也許可以得到些許好轉。印度財政部長普拉納布·穆克吉在26日辭去了職務,并宣布將會參與下一屆總統競選的角逐。穆克吉部長在1982年初上任的時候第一次公布了他的財政預算,但就目前的經濟狀況來看,他任職期間的所作所為早已過分拮據不合時宜。比如針對如沃達豐這樣的外資企業征稅、縮減預算赤字失敗、以及其領導的修正委員,最后往往被證明是搬起石頭砸自己的腳。

Responsibility for the finance ministry17, for a time at least, has passed to Manmohan Singh, the prime minister. Although even less of a spring chicken—at 79, compared with Mr Mukherjee's 76—he has credentials18 as a reformer, having served as finance minister when India unveiled its liberalisation in 1991.

有關執掌國家財政大權的事宜,已經在近幾年移交給了曼莫尼·辛格總理。與76歲的穆克吉相比,已79歲高齡的辛格更欠年齡上的優勢,但他曾在1991年時任財政部長,那時的印度正在經歷一系列的經濟自由化改革,可以說辛格對于這場變革也是功不可沒。

At the end of his career, the hope is that Mr Singh makes a stand and rams19 through budget cuts and vital changes on tax and foreign investment. “It could make a difference,” says an official. “He has a lot of credibility. It is an area that is close to his heart and his reputation will be much more on the line… The situation is tough so there is a limit to what can be done, but it is a mood-lifter.” His party, Congress, which leads the ruling coalition20 and is run by Sonia Gandhi, its hereditary21 chief, is lukewarm about making tough decisions. But there are signs that it may have successfully wooed one or two smaller parties outside its present coalition, which may help it push tricky22 changes through parliament.

而辛格也被許多人寄望,能夠在執政末期再加把力,促成預算削減和有關稅制與外資的改革上。“局面一定會有所改變,”一位官員預測到,“他在這些議題上已經積累了不少經驗和功績,這是他的心之所向,但他的名譽也將會經受更多考驗,很有可能晚節不保。目前形式仍然嚴峻,因此真正能夠落實的項目也十分有限。但不管怎么說,這是一種士氣上的鼓舞。”而主導聯合政府、接任亡夫之位的領袖索尼婭·甘地所領導的印度國大黨及議會對做出這些艱難決定的態度不溫不火,但也有跡象顯示,一些小型聯合執政外的在野黨則被這些議題吸引過來,幫助一些具有爭議的法案在議會中通過。

The promise of a push on reforms has been made—and broken—consistently by the government for years. With a busy electoral timetable up to general elections in 2014, it may be harder to fulfil than ever. Still, others, stepping back from the hurly-burly, can see a silver lining23 in India's great wobble, particularly the fall in the currency. T.C.A. Ranganathan, the chairman of Exim Bank of India, which finances trade, says: “The exchange rate has moved in our favour. I'm fairly happy.” He reckons a weaker rupee will help spur a long-awaited boom in manufacturing. Kaushik Basu, the government's chief economic adviser24, no slouch on the need for reform, agrees. A cheaper currency means India is “getting an advantage for our export sector”. Perhaps, in time, that may prove more important than today's firefighting.

印度政府在過去幾年中針對改革的承諾一直反口復舌,2014年的印度總統大選意味將會有更多的高層活動,屆時部分工作和議題將會更難開展。但仍然有人漸漸淡出唇槍舌劍,在印度如今經濟局勢的劇烈震蕩,尤其是貨幣持續貶值的趨勢當中看到了希望。主管貿易注資的印度進出口銀行主席T.C.A 阮甘那桑說:“我很高興看到盧比匯率正在朝我們希望的方向發展。”他認為,盧比的持續疲軟可以幫助完成一次久盼未臨的制造業昌旺。一向對經濟改革信誓旦旦的印度政府首席經濟顧問巴素也認同這一觀點。廉價貨幣對印度的出口業來說“可能是一種優勢”。時間會證明,這一切將會比現在的改革與保守派之爭更為至關重要。


點擊收聽單詞發音收聽單詞發音  

1 woes 887656d87afcd3df018215107a0daaab     
困境( woe的名詞復數 ); 悲傷; 我好苦哇; 某人就要倒霉
參考例句:
  • Thanks for listening to my woes. 謝謝您聽我訴說不幸的遭遇。
  • She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 對于經濟的困難她叫苦不迭。
2 fickle Lg9zn     
adj.(愛情或友誼上)易變的,不堅定的
參考例句:
  • Fluctuating prices usually base on a fickle public's demand.物價的波動往往是由于群眾需求的不穩定而引起的。
  • The weather is so fickle in summer.夏日的天氣如此多變。
3 tempt MpIwg     
vt.引誘,勾引,吸引,引起…的興趣
參考例句:
  • Nothing could tempt him to such a course of action.什么都不能誘使他去那樣做。
  • The fact that she had become wealthy did not tempt her to alter her frugal way of life.她有錢了,可這絲毫沒能讓她改變節儉的生活習慣。
4 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投資者,出資者( investor的名詞復數 )
參考例句:
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 詐取投資者幾百萬元的騙子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投資者的賺錢機會
5 restrictions 81e12dac658cfd4c590486dd6f7523cf     
約束( restriction的名詞復數 ); 管制; 制約因素; 帶限制性的條件(或規則)
參考例句:
  • I found the restrictions irksome. 我對那些限制感到很煩。
  • a snaggle of restrictions 雜亂無章的種種限制
6 infrastructure UbBz5     
n.下部構造,下部組織,基礎結構,基礎設施
參考例句:
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加強科學基礎設施建設。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加強文化基礎設施建設,發展各類群眾文化。
7 morale z6Ez8     
n.道德準則,士氣,斗志
參考例句:
  • The morale of the enemy troops is sinking lower every day.敵軍的士氣日益低落。
  • He tried to bolster up their morale.他盡力鼓舞他們的士氣。
8 inspection y6TxG     
n.檢查,審查,檢閱
參考例句:
  • On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.經抽查,發現肉變質了。
  • The soldiers lined up for their daily inspection by their officers.士兵們列隊接受軍官的日常檢閱。
9 hovers a2e4e67c73750d262be7fdd8c8ae6133     
鳥( hover的第三人稱單數 ); 靠近(某事物); (人)徘徊; 猶豫
參考例句:
  • A hawk hovers in the sky. 一只老鷹在天空盤旋。
  • A hen hovers her chicks. 一只母雞在孵小雞。
10 remains 1kMzTy     
n.剩余物,殘留物;遺體,遺跡
參考例句:
  • He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
  • The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.殘羹剩飯喂狗了。
11 bleak gtWz5     
adj.(天氣)陰冷的;凄涼的;暗淡的
參考例句:
  • They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他們引我來到一間陰冷的會客室。
  • The company's prospects look pretty bleak.這家公司的前景異常暗淡。
12 presidency J1HzD     
n.總統(校長,總經理)的職位(任期)
參考例句:
  • Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.羅斯福連續當選四屆美國總統。
  • Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.兩位候選人最終成為總統職位競爭者。
13 disastrous 2ujx0     
adj.災難性的,造成災害的;極壞的,很糟的
參考例句:
  • The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成災。
  • Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投資結果很慘,血本無歸。
14 stint 9GAzB     
v.節省,限制,停止;n.舍不得化,節約,限制;連續不斷的一段時間從事某件事
參考例句:
  • He lavished money on his children without stint.他在孩子們身上花錢毫不吝惜。
  • We hope that you will not stint your criticism.我們希望您不吝指教。
15 deficit tmAzu     
n.虧空,虧損;赤字,逆差
參考例句:
  • The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事們報告赤字為250萬美元。
  • We have a great deficit this year.我們今年有很大虧損。
16 ordnance IJdxr     
n.大炮,軍械
參考例句:
  • She worked in an ordnance factory during the war.戰爭期間她在一家兵工廠工作。
  • Shoes and clothing for the army were scarce,ordnance supplies and drugs were scarcer.軍隊很缺鞋和衣服,武器供應和藥品就更少了。
17 ministry kD5x2     
n.(政府的)部;牧師
參考例句:
  • They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他們派了一個代表團到部里投訴。
  • We probed the Air Ministry statements.我們調查了空軍部的記錄。
18 credentials credentials     
n.證明,資格,證明書,證件
參考例句:
  • He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作資歷很深。
  • Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此項工作的兩個求職者都非常符合資格。
19 rams 19ae31d4a3786435f6cd55e4afd928c8     
n.公羊( ram的名詞復數 );(R-)白羊(星)座;夯;攻城槌v.夯實(土等)( ram的第三人稱單數 );猛撞;猛壓;反復灌輸
參考例句:
  • A couple of rams are butting at each other. 兩只羊正在用角互相抵觸。 來自辭典例句
  • More than anything the rams helped to break what should have been on interminable marriage. 那些牡羊比任何東西都更嚴重地加速了他們那本該天長地久的婚姻的破裂。 來自辭典例句
20 coalition pWlyi     
n.結合體,同盟,結合,聯合
參考例句:
  • The several parties formed a coalition.這幾個政黨組成了政治聯盟。
  • Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.聯盟軍隊竭盡全力避免造成平民傷亡。
21 hereditary fQJzF     
adj.遺傳的,遺傳性的,可繼承的,世襲的
參考例句:
  • The Queen of England is a hereditary ruler.英國女王是世襲的統治者。
  • In men,hair loss is hereditary.男性脫發屬于遺傳。
22 tricky 9fCzyd     
adj.狡猾的,奸詐的;(工作等)棘手的,微妙的
參考例句:
  • I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的處境很棘手,你能幫我嗎?
  • He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了這個非常微妙的問題,只做了個籠統的表述。
23 lining kpgzTO     
n.襯里,襯料
參考例句:
  • The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套襯里破了。
  • Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔蘚墊在鐵絲籃里很漂亮。
24 adviser HznziU     
n.勸告者,顧問
參考例句:
  • They employed me as an adviser.他們聘請我當顧問。
  • Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我們系已經聘請了一位外籍老師作為語音顧問。
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